Now, I'm just sayin'...
This title borrows from Benjamin Franklin's aphorism, illustrating that short-term benefits may do more harm than good in the future; a quick buzz will get you through the evening, but there'll be hell to pay later.
John McCain's campaign may be on the verge of learning this lesson, again.
While I could cite several minor examples of how McCain has sacrificed good, long-term strategy for the sake of a quick fix, I believe two instances in particular (one major, and one timely) are indicative of the kind of flawed, short-sighted judgment that characterizes the Senator from Arizona: Sarah Palin and, now, the debate scheduling.
Part I:
Now, I'm on record as being psyched about Sarah Palin. I thought she was a patronizing, transparently calculated choice and that the shine on the proverbial turd would eventually tarnish:
There will be an initial media infatuation, but the honeymoon will soon be over once she's forced into the limelight.
<\ self back patting>
Sarah Palin was a night of Wild Turkey shots at the bar. You got small doses of good stuff, you felt jollier after each one, and at the end of the evening you felt pretty damn good. But, the next morning, you felt like you'd been hit by a bus, swore off the stuff, and maybe even puked. The short term effect was great, but what did you have to show for it in the morning?
Declining favorability numbers.
When John McCain picked Sarah Palin as his running mate late last month, the Alaska governor quickly became a media phenomenon.
[snip]
But then a funny thing happened: Palin seems to have lost some of her luster...Over the course of a single weekend, in other words, Palin went from being the most popular White House hopeful to the least.
But, as a picture is worth 1,000 words, this chart uses data collected by Survey USA - a nonpartisan organization that ranks as one of the best in the business for polling accuracy (click to enlarge):
Part II: The Debate Schedule
Now, for the timely story. Ignoring the amusing fact that John McCain plans to take a nap before the first debate (presumably to make him less fussy), the topic of the first debate was originally domestic policy.
The first debate, on Friday, will be at the University of Mississippi in Oxford, where in 1962 the enrollment of James Meredith, its first African-American student, touched off a deadly riot. The debate commission had directed that this debate would cover domestic issues, but the two campaigns agreed to change it to foreign policy. Sen. McCain's advisers wanted to lead off with his strong suit, foreign policy. Sen. Obama's advisers wanted to have the last debate center on domestic issues, particularly the economy, which they believe will benefit their candidate. Also, some Obama advisers said they didn't want the issue of race "front and center" during a debate.
So, it would seem that both sides got what they wanted in this respect: McCain leads off with foreign policy, and Obama bats cleanup with domestic. But this is another example of McCain's bad judgment: sacrificing long-term success for quick momentum.
While McCain - who consistently polls ahead of Obama on foreign policy cred and experience - will certainly feel as though he got a shot in the arm from this first debate, how long will it play out? The first debate is this Friday. While record numbers of voters will tune in, headlines and quick talking head reactions from the first debate will be lost to the weekend. The next debate is the next Thursday (October 2) between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin. With all the attention this debate has been given ahead of time - MORE than the presidential debates themselves - the media narrative is likely to shift a day or two in advance, previewing whether Joe Biden will bully poor Sarah, or whether Sarah will come off looking like a novice, or a host of other non-issue-related stories. This leaves a very small window during which a strong performance (which McCain still has to deliver, lest we forget) can be fawned over and inflated.
While I could get into similar projected time frames and prognostications for the VP debate and the presidential town hall debate on Tuesday, October 7 (i.e., McCain prefers town hall style, how previous performance determines tone and behavior, etc), there's a more important factor best described by an old sports adage: "It ain't how you start; it's how you finish." While McCain was focused on getting his foreign policy buzz on, Obama is playing for the long haul. Enter, Wednesday, October 15 at New York's Hofstra University where the presidential candidates will meet for their third and final debate on... domestic issues.
That's right. The last things we'll be talking about coming out of the debates for three weeks - with no other date on the calendar but November 4 - are the economy, health care, education, and other Obama strong suits. Obama will hammer McCain on the dreadful state of the economy, rip the face off his faith-based health care plan ("pray you don't get sick"), call out the lies about his tax plan, and wrap John McCain up in a pretty George Bush/four more years of the same bow.
Now, I'm no dummy. I know the McCain campaign won't sit back and let this story occupy the airwaves for three weeks. That's why the Obama rapid response team has to be on their best game for the inevitable distractions that are bound to happen following the final debate. You can set your watch by it. After the third debate, McCain's team will blow the dam, unleashing a deluge of every ridiculous red herring and allegation they can dream up. And don't be surprised if McCain gets an assist from the Bush White House with a timely terror alert in a desperate attempt to shift the public focus. With time winding down, it will be the responsibility of the Obama campaign, the press (gulp), and us to debunk the lies. In the wake of the debates, a swift and merciless Obama surrogate/spokesman counterattack will be absolutely essential to electoral success.
Strap yourself in. This is going to be intense.
I'm just sayin'...
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